NFL Playoff Breakdown/Championship Round
There are now 2 rounds in the books, my original predictions have gone 7-1 and there are only 3 more games left until we have our Super Bowl champion. If you have been following along you know that each week I plan on updating how the previous round went, if I would like to change my prediction of the coming week’s winners (especially when one of my predictions loses and changes the matchup), and give more insight into the next round. Remember, you heard it here first, folks. *All times are U.S. Central Standard Time, predicted winners each round are in BOLD, actual winners are in green, projected opponents are in (parentheses), and changed text is in italics*.
Wildcard Weekend –
Saturday, January 7th:
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans, 3:35 pm on ESPN
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks, 7:15 pm on NBC
Sunday, January 8th:
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 12:05 pm on CBS
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers, 3:40 pm on FOX
So, after going 4/4 last week we will see if my luck runs out this week. Seattle ran the ball extremely well last week; if they can run with the same authority against the mediocre Atlanta Falcons run defense then Seattle will be able to pull out a win on the road. The Steelers looked devastating on offense, likely the best offense of the AFC contenders; if their defense can hold up I see them fighting against New England in the AFC championship. Houston won in a convincing game, something that was pretty foreseeable if you watched Oakland play Denver week 17; they will be rewarded by being sacrificed to New England on national TV Saturday night. The one prediction I would change if I could would be the Packers/Cowboys game. Aaron Rodgers showed that he can get it done without Nelson but I think this offense is going to struggle a bit without him. I can still see this game going either way but I’m giving the edge to the Cowboys as of now. I won’t adjust my predictions on here so that they are uniform throughout the playoffs but just know that my weekly prediction is now the Cowboys.
Divisional Weekend –
Saturday, January 14th:
Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks, 3:35 pm on FOX
New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans, 7:15 pm on CBS
Sunday January 15th:
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 12:05 pm on NBC
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers, 3:40 pm on FOX
So, the Wild Card round had 4 games decided by more than 13 points and that trend continued on Saturday for the Falcons and Patriots victories at home. Only on Sunday did we actually see games decided by fewer than 13 points, 2 games decided by a combined 5 points to be exact. I was very excited for Falcons/Seahawks; I didn’t want to watch Atlanta play anyone else. The way Seattle ran the ball during the Wild Card game was eye-opening; they looked like the Seattle of old. They followed up that game by putting up a 21/101/0 rush line as a team, a far cry from bad but nowhere close to what they needed to win this game. After the 1st drive I was confident in my pick but Atlanta answered on their next drive and scoring on their next few as well. The point where I knew this game was over was when Atlanta scored to cap off a 99 yard TD drive, the Seattle D just didn’t show up. The Pats had their cake walk into the AFC Championship but managed to look human for the first quarter or 2. I was right about Big Ben shaking off the walking boot and having no ill effects from his “injury”. I also mentioned that the Chief’s run D is their weakness and Le’Veon Bell is running like a madman right now; if Big Ben can limit the turnovers (something he struggles with on the road) and the Steel D can keep Tyreek Hill under control then I think they will be headed to Gillette Stadium next week. I am not sure the public’s opinion of this game but my predictions were very similar to most analysts and it all went to plan. The Steelers won the turnover battle (no small accomplishment against KC), Bell had a 30/170/0 rushing line, and Tyreek Hill only had a 7/48/0 line for total offense. I did change my actual pick to the Cowboys but I left my pick on the Packers so this article would reflect my initial choices as best as possible throughout the playoffs. That game could have really gone either way but the team with the better QB won, something that happens all-too-often in the NFL playoffs.
Championship Sunday –
Sunday, January 22nd:
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers, 2:05 pm on FOX
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 5:40 pm on CBS
Last year after Championship Sunday I had the feeling the Panthers would win the Super Bowl hands down, despite the fact that I adamantly told everyone I knew that Cam Newton and the Panthers weren’t nearly as good as they were playing. I told myself this after the first 6 games and had to listen to all of my friends continually tell me that I was dead wrong, after the NFC Championship, I finally gave in. It is my belief that there is a huge mental aspect to the NFL and sometimes that can control games more so than a team’s level of talent. On Super Bowl Sunday I awoke and laid in bed thinking about the game later that day. I told myself that there is no way in hell that one of the all-time-greats in Peyton Manning was going to leave this league with a giant loss hanging over his head forever. Despite my realization, I bet on the Panthers to win the big show. After their demise I told myself that if I truly believe that a team is currently playing way above their pay-grade that I wouldn’t give in to public opinion ever again.
The reason why I say this is because Atlanta isn’t as good as they appear, they are this year’s Carolina Panthers from 2015-2016. They may just as well pull out a W this week but by all things that are good in this world I promise you that they will not win the Super Bowl this season. Many articles coming out this week will point out how good playoff teams are almost always pioneered with a stout defense and a great QB, Matt Ryan is NOT a great QB. Did he have an MVP caliber season? Hell yes he did. Is he a franchise QB that a team can be built around? Why, yes he is. My point is that until this season, he has been the epitome of an average QB. Fantasy wise he was QB #7 like clockwork every year, why is he suddenly #1? I had the exact feelings about Cam last year and it did not work out for him very well did it? I would rather take the other 3 QBs left in the playoffs over Matt Ryan and Atlanta has the worst defense left out of the 4, this is why I am taking the Packers as my winner this week.
Surprised I didn’t go with my Steelers here? Me too. Even though I think the Steelers are the only AFC team capable of bringing down the house in Gillette Stadium, I think the Steelers have been struggling with ball protection on the road too much this season to beat Brady at home. If the Steelers don’t hand the ball over to Brady and stop Blount in the redzone (something they have actually been very good at this season) they can pull away with a W but a lot has to go right for that to happen. In addition to this, I would like to leave this little tidbit here as well: the Giants in previous Super Bowls and the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship last year have taught me 1 thing, the ONLY way to beat a Patriots team lead by Tom Brady is to get to him early and often. If you can limit Tom’s time to find the wide-open guy by applying pressure or even force a few turnovers you have a small chance to take the Patriots down.
Super Bowl Sunday –
Sunday, February 5th:
AFC Champion (New England Patriots) vs. NFC Champion (Green Bay Packers), 5:30 pm on FOX
So, I had to change my picks here since I had Seattle representing the NFC and winning it all on Super Bowl Sunday, 2 things that are impossible now. I have changed my picks to the Packers winning over the Falcons and New England winning on Super Bowl Sunday. I would be absolutely thrilled as a Steelers fan to see a rematch with the Packers (they played in Super Bowl 45 with the Packers pulling out the W) but they have to beat what many people believe is the best team in the NFL before they can get there. They have the tools to do it but the odds are against them. In my rant above I went on and on about how Atlanta isn’t as good as they are playing. Feel free to ignore my advice if you believe they are the real deal but I am willing to bet they lose at least 1 game between this Sunday and the Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers is out for blood and he will not be denied. If my 2 picks for this weekend’s games are correct, we will be in for one hell of a Super Bowl contest.
