In a league with a surprising amount of parity, the American League West may be the division with the clearest divide between contenders and pretenders. It didn’t help that several teams in the division had underwhelming offseasons that resembled a nervous blackjack player struggling with the decision to hit or hold on a fifteen.
Now that I’ve completely given the game away, let me back up. Aside from the fresh observation (insert sarcasm here) that preseason predictions carry the same amount of weight as a helium balloon on a gusty spring day, I will lead with the caveat that there is a path to a playoff spot for each of the teams in this division. Now let’s dive right in.
Division Winner: Houston Astros (2015 Record 86-76)
The Houston Astros were controversially conservative in their free agent acquisitions, with the addition of former Nationals starter Doug Fister (1 year, $7 million plus incentives) being the only notable signing. Most of the Astros’ potential lies in their developing youth. The organization is clearly counting on a full season’s production from
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Carlos Correa and mid-season acquisition Carlos Gomez, whose disappointing 2015 campaign is being largely chalked up to injuries. Jeff Luhnow is also betting on young star George Springer to continue his development into one of the better young outfielders in the game. Last season Springer significantly cut down on his strikeouts and raised his batting average by more than 40 points, however those stats were largely driven by a .342 BAbip, almost 50 points higher than his 2014 season, so some regression may be coming.
Dallas Keuchel’s 2015 season was also inspiring enough to expect that it may regress to a degree, mostly in the strikeout stat. Keuchel’s 216 strikeouts in 2015 were 70 more than he had in any of his previous three seasons, which is a huge leap to take. The decision to possibly limit young fireballer Lance McCullers’ innings also plays against the strength of the rotation and the possibility that those lost innings may come at the beginning of the season raises questions about how an unconventional training schedule and rest days will play into the youngster’s development and rhythm.
Don’t think that I am down on the Astros though, especially since I do have them winning the division. I believe that a bounce back season from Gomez, a full season of Correa, and a strong rotation and improved bullpen with Ken Giles at the back end will be the most well rounded team in the division. However, this is not a team that I predict will run away with the west, as many players had career years in 2015 and expecting them to duplicate that sort of performance is a logical fallacy. Probably.
Texas Rangers (2015 Record 88-74)
When Yu Darvish went down in spring training of 2015 with a torn UCL you could almost hear the air go out of the Texas Rangers’ hype balloon. The fact that the Rangers made it as far as they did was a testament to seasoned, consistent lineup and a pitching staff that did just enough to not mess it up. However this season’s group looks one year older and the pitching has improved but only in the late innings, a move likely with the expectation that any hurler not named Hamels or Darvish is going to have a rough go of it.
The three factors I see playing the biggest role in the Rangers’ season are these:
1) When does Yu Darvish come back and how effective is he?
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Darvish has a rough timetable for a return in May, however these things tend to be fluid. Even after his start date,
the general rule of thumb is that full command of breaking pitches doesn’t return until 1 year after a return from Tommy John surgery. The problem is that the Rangers need Darvish. The pitching staff ranked 13th in the American League in runs allowed and 14th in K’s, a result that isn’t likely to keep them competitive going forward.
2) One year older, one year worse?
It’s no secret that Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre, and Josh Hamilton are reaching the twilight of their careers. While Fielder recovered nicely from a disappointing 2014, his power numbers cratered after the all-star break, and Beltre didn’t do much better, watching his season HR total drop for the third year in a row. With Josh Hamilton showing injury cracks already, the question of whether the core of the Ranger lineup can still produce is a prudent one.
3) Will Ian Desmond bounce back?
Desmond’s 2015 season is not lacking for any colorful adjectives, some that are not fit for print. With the Ranger infield fairly set, Desmond will have to learn how to play outfield in addition to learning how to hit above .230 again. The burden of learning a new position and how it affects a player’s hitting performance is largely speculative, but it can’t help. Follow closely as spring training goes on.
Seattle Mariners (2015 Record 76-86)
Oh Seattle, it seems that I just can’t quit you.
Last season the Mariners were the consensus “sexy” pick to win the American League West. They rewarded the faith of sports writers everywhere by finishing 10 games below .500 and forcing us to burn our “Sleepless in Seattle” DVD’s whilst eating a pint of cookie dough ice cream or maybe that was just me.
This season the Mariners have balanced out the lineup to a degree with Nori Aoki and Leonys Martin, the former offering a significant OBP upgrade and both bringing an element of speed to a previously bloated power lineup. This multi-faceted approach is an intriguing wrinkle to what was a one trick power pony in 2015. The Mariners ranked 5th in HR’s in the AL but ranked 11th in stolen bases and 13th in batting average.
AP Photo/Ted S. Warren
The real question though will be pitching. Felix Hernandez began to show a few cracks in his sterling armor during 2015 with a handful of truly dreadful starts. Behind him is a capable number 2 starter in Hisashi Iwakuma, however Iwakuma’s inability to stay healthy for an entire season has been a concern. Taijuan Walker was a disappointment in 2015 at first glance, but the advanced metrics indicate that he may have been a bit unlucky. That coupled with a K/BB that was actually better than teammate King Felix may mean that a breakout season is in the offing.
The bottom line is that Seattle will have to capitalize with a more balanced attack at the dish and a big step forward from Taijuan Walker and James Paxton. Oh and Fernando Rodney needs to get it together.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2015 Record 85-77)
With every team except the Astros looking noticeably old and weary it’s a small wonder that I chose them to win the division. The Angels made a small effort to bring youth and spring into the lineup next to Trout with the addition of Andrelton Simmons. This addition is largely a defensive one as you can make the argument that Aybar had a slightly better bat. Aside from that the Angels failed to make any significant upgrades offensively or in the rotation, which
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behind Garrett Richards is looking sparse.
Albert Pujols had offseason surgery on his ailing right foot and is expected to miss Opening Day. He hit 40 home runs in 2015 for the first time since 2010, but his average dipped to a disappointing .244. Pujols’ health has become a concern in recent years, and his recovery from foot surgery should be watched closely through spring training. An Angels lineup without a healthy Albert Pujols is not a playoff team, simply put.
The rotation is the next biggest issue, with no notable improvements made the the starting staff. Garrett Richards has assumed the role of Ace, but behind him the questions start to crop up. Hector Santiago posted a respectable ERA of 3.59, however his FIP was over a full run higher, a sure sign that 2015 may have been a fluke. Behind him is aging Jered Weaver whose strikeout numbers reached a career low and ERA reached a career high. The rotation’s saving grace may be former first round pick Andrew Heaney, who showed solid control and an ability to keep the ball in the yard. The strikeout numbers are low, but as a sinkerball pitcher that is to be expected and shouldn’t be a concern going forward. If he can continue his rise this season, the Angels will only have to sweat bullets on three days out of five, rather than four.
This is a team that could have used a Doug Fister or a Jeff Samardzija to round out the rotation, and a Jay Bruce to round out what is an incomplete outfield. Without them they fail to match up with the other teams at the top of the division and should see a drop off to a .500 to slightly below .500 team in a competitive division.
Oakland Athletics (2015 Record 68-94)
This may be the worst team in the American League. Sorry Billy Beane.
Michael Macor, The Chronicle
With the collective specters of Josh Donaldson and Yoenis Cespedes hanging over the clubhouse like the ghosts of championships past, the questions have already started to circle about Sonny Gray and his availability. To the A’s credit, they always seem to attempt to be competitive, even if the chance of a playoff birth is middling at best. What hurts more is that despite the trade of Donaldson the A’s still rank 18th in the MLB in ESPN scout and analyst Keith Law’s farm system rankings, meaning that more offloading of talent is likely coming.
The A’s did add Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, and once vaunted reliever Ryan Madson to the squad. With that came the departure of Brett Lawrie, who was acquired in the trade for Josh Donaldson, Jesse Chavez, and Drew Pomeranz. While Chavez and Pomeranz weren’t setting the world on fire, the back end of the rotation looks far less stable without them, and the A’s may be eating up bullpen innings with the likes of Chris Bassitt and Kendall Graveman attempting to supply badly needed innings.
While the offense isn’t terrible it lacks a middle of the order bat with authority. The strongest power bat is that of Khris Davis who was added in the offseason, however there is reason to believe that his power may not play in the spacious outfield of the Coliseum.
The A’s would need to mortgage the future in a big way to make a run at the division, as well as see career years for Burns, Lowrie, Reddick, and Gray. What is more likely is that all of those names will no longer be in the green and gold following the trade deadline. Billy Beane has never been reluctant to deal and this may be the most logical season to say it just isn’t going to happen.
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