Week 7 Upgrades & Downgrades
As we get close to the middle of the season we begin to understand what our favorite teams are truly made of and start to develop a playoff picture. Here at the Overtime Network we will develop a playoff picture in the coming weeks and evaluate the playoffs once they become set in stone for the NFL.
As I’ve said before, with the new setup, keep in mind that for players I have listed as “downgrades”, I simply mean you should expect less than their statistical average given the current matchup. They may still start for you and of course, they still may have a good week, but you shouldn’t expect as much from them. For “upgrades”, you can expect them to score more than they typically do but they may not be a starter in your league or for your team. Let’s get started!
Position: Quarterback
Upgrades –
- Dak Prescott, San Fran can’t stop anyone in the passing game but they can stop the run so 30-35 passes for Dak this week certainly isn’t out of the question
- Matt Ryan, Patriots are the WORST pass defense in the league right now and EVERY passer against them so far this year has had 300+ yards, whoever is playing them should be starting
- Kirk Cousins, Philly hasn’t been as good against the pass in the last 4 games and with Kelley still not 100% they are going to throw, throw, throw
- Marcus Mariota, May be a bit banged up still but Cleveland is a sieve in the secondary and is very tough to run against
- Russell Wilson, Giants showed last week that their pass D is still very good but they do have holes and nobody knows what the running game for Seattle will look like the rest of the season
Downgrades –
- Andy Dalton, Steelers are up there in the league for pass defense but are down near the bottom in terms of stopping the opposing run game, I know what my game plan would be against them
- Philip Rivers, He’s playing Denver, who is a divisional opponent. Less than ideal one could say
- Jared Goff, I know Arizona has been involved in a lot of shoot outs recently but with AP doing surprisingly well last week both offenses may be content in running the ball 25 times
- Trevor Siemian, Did not look great in the 1st half last week and will be without Sanders this week, plus the Chargers are quietly very good defensively against the pass
- Jacoby Brissett, Playing against Jacksonville does not do many QBs favors so everyone should be looking elsewhere this week
Position: Running Back
Upgrades –
- Leonard Fournette, Indy seems decent at stopping the run on paper but the eye test tells a different story
- Carlos Hyde, Dallas is giving up 4.6 YPC so far this year and Hyde had a ridiculous YPC average over the 1st 4 weeks of the season AND they have a new QB this week, seems like a no-brainer to me
- Adrian Peterson, Looked like AP from 2013 last week and now gets the Rams who are not great at stopping the run anyway
- CJ Anderson, Running on the Chargers is a much better option than passing on them and with Sanders out they may be more inclined to hand the ball off this week
- Joe Mixon, Steelers are toward the bottom of the league in YPC allowed and Mixon got 19 touches a week over the past 3 weeks
- Tevin Coleman, Patriots D looks like crap this season and in a game that could turn into a shootout I would prefer the back that catches passes vs. the one that doesn’t
- James White, Guess who leads the Patriots in targets to far this season? Yup, this guy. Also, for those of you who didn’t watch the Super Bowl last year he had an alright game…
- Duke Johnson Jr., Hogan apparently didn’t like him much but the good news is that Kizer is back in control of this offense and he loves to get the ball to DJ
Downgrades –
- Ezekiel Elliott, He may be running with a fury this week but the SF run D has been solid so far this season
- Doug Martin, May still get 20+ touches this week but the Bills D is one of the best in the league, period
- DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry, Cleveland can stop the run and they are about as vulnerable as it gets through the air. Also, Murray is dinged
- Frank Gore, Should be giving up more and more carries to the guys behind him to keep him fresh throughout the season and that looks to have already begun
- Jay Ajayi, Did not do well against them in the first meeting, the Jets have done well in stopping the run so far this season, and Ajayi has struggled to find real room running the ball so far
- Orleans Darkwa, Looked good last week but this OL is just not built to sustain a good run game and Seattle could go up early and force the Giants to pass
- Isaiah Crowell, I promise I don’t have anything against this guy but Duke gets targeted a lot when Kizer is in and the Browns are losing, which he will be and they always are
- Any Seattle RB, 3 headed monster that could apparently change for any given week, Lacy and Rawls are simply stash and hope options at this point, Prosise does have a defined role however
Position: Wide Receiver
Upgrades –
- Julio Jones, Play every Falcons player you have this week, they are going to score A LOT of points
- Dez Bryant, See Prescott, Dak above
- Demaryius Thomas, No Sanders means more targets for DT and he finally had a good week when Sanders was out so I expect much the same this week
- Michael Thomas, GB secondary isn’t great and Snead is going to need a few weeks to get going in this offense
- Alshon Jeffery, No Norman? No problem. Jeffery had 10 targets last week and it could be a shootout Monday night, I like his ceiling this week
- Rishard Mathews, Like I said for Mariota, the Browns can be thrown on and with a banged up lead back, going through the air is the best option this week, and Davis is out as well
- Martavis Bryant, He wants the ball and AB doesn’t do statistically well against them, this is the week he breaks out or he won’t do it at all this year
- Pierre Garcon, Even though they have a QB change he is still going to be targeted a ton and they will likely be down early
Downgrades –
- Antonio Brown, Statistically he does not do “AB things” against this defense
- Doug Baldwin, He’s likely going to see the most of Jenkins this week and I expect a good week out of Richardson and Graham instead
- Mike Evans, Came through last week against a tough matchup but he has another one on his plate this week and Winston has an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder
- Keenan Allen, Denver defense
- TY Hilton, About as tough of a matchup as it could be and Jalen Ramsey will be all over him
- Davante Adams/Randall Cobb, Not expecting much from a WR not named Jordy Nelson with the captain (Rodgers) out with a clavicle fracture that just got surgically repaired
- Stefon Diggs, Didn’t play last week, his status this week is murky at best, and it’s a tough matchup overall
- Sterling Shephard, Not a good matchup and with OBJ and Marshall out I’d double cover him and force Manning to beat me with JV WRs or a TE
Position: Tight End
Upgrades –
- Jimmy Graham, There is nobody worse against the TE position than the Giants
- Evan Engram, There is nobody else to throw to in this offense for the Giants
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Caught 2 TD passes last week but only 1 of them counted for some reason, now he gets Miami who is not good as stopping athletic tight ends
- Austin Hooper, Every. Player.
- Delanie Walker, He’s here every week, I know, but Cleveland can’t stop the TE position or really any offensive position other than a Running Back
Downgrades –
- Rob Gronkowski, Atlanta is pretty decent against opposing TEs but he’s not sitting for any team this week in what could be a very high-scoring affair
- Jordan Reed, Eagles have been good against TEs so far this year and he just isn’t his usual self right now, maybe he breaks out of his slump this week but I don’t think so
- Tyler Kroft, Steelers can stop opposing TEs and Green generally does pretty well against them, wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Rifle locks onto Green this week
- Nick O’Leary, I don’t even know who this guy is…seems to be a common theme amongst TEs this year for some reason
- AJ Derby, Siemian is going to go through DT this week and nobody else, Chargers are just too good in the secondary
