Football is a frustrating game. It may be exciting to watch (minus the 60 minutes of commercials) and it can be a lot of fun trying to predict what happens but in a sense, football is maddening. It’s easier to predict what happens in baseball, it really is a numbers game; who is starting for the Cubs today? Who hits well against him on the opposing team? Are they better fastball or off-speed hitters? How often does the opposing pitcher throw off-speed? How often does the opposing manager apply shifts? How good is that player at beating the shift? You can’t do that in football folks. In football there are 22 players on the field at a time and just about all of them are in on every play. If 1 of those guys makes a mistake, it changes everything. Not in baseball, in baseball you have the pitcher, hitter, and catcher on every play. When the ball is in play you have the fielder it was hit to and the player they deliver the ball to, that about 6 players vs 16 in football. You could argue a similar point in either basketball or hockey but with only 10-12 players on at a time there is less variable to deal with. That’s really what it boils down to in predicting football matchups, predicting the variable, otherwise known as blind luck. I could tell you Jeremy Hill is going to have a bad day against the Broncos because the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL and the Bengals are quick to abandon the run when they are trailing from behind. I could tell you that if the Bengals get within 5 yards of the goal line that they will hand it to Hill at least twice because Hill has a ridiculous TD/game average in his young career. Hence me saying last week, if Hill doesn’t score, don’t expect much from him. What I can’t predict is that his first run from scrimmage is going between the tackles for 50 yards, and then he is plunging it in 2 plays later from the 2 yard line. I was spot-on in that besides that 1st run, Hill only had a 16/47/1 stat line which doesn’t quite put him at an elite stats for the week. What I am getting at is that you need to take my weekly column with a grain of salt. I predict what I know because that’s all I can do, if I start predicting ridiculous long runs or multiple TDs every week (equally as ridiculous) for my players then I am going to be wrong more often than not. So I apologize for the rant, but now I feel much better about what I have written below.
As always, the most important takeaway from this article should be to never sit your studs. Let me say that again, NEVER sit your STUDS. Your studs are the guys that can prevail no matter the matchup because they are one of the best in the world at doing what they do. Every week I will have a list of the major studs at each offensive position that should never be on your bench unless they are on bye or if they are injured, don’t outsmart yourself with their matchups. This list is intended to help you decide between 1 or more players you may not be completely sold on, on a weekly basis. Just because I don’t particularly like a certain player does not mean they should be on your bench no matter what. Some people won’t have better options than the players I don’t like and, I am human, I will make mistakes. It is also important to note that the players listed here under Start should be considered for use in DFS leagues as they will likely be available at a cheaper price or I think they are ready for an amazing week.
Quarterbacks
Studs –
Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady
Start –
Matthew Stafford – Stafford has been going nuts so far this year and he gets the Bear’s horrible defense this week, start him if you got him.
Phillip Rivers – Rivers has continued to produce in the absence of Keenan Allen, which makes you wonder what might have been if Allen was still healthy. Anyway, besides week 2 with the Giants every game against New Orleans has been a shootout, should be again today.
Kirk Cousins – Cousins had a good bounce-back game last week and he gets the Browns this week. Might try to hand the rock off if they go up a ton early but the Browns have been putting up points this year to keep games competitive.
Blake Bortles – Bortles is off to a slow start so far this season but a game against Indy might be exactly what he needs in order to right the ship.
Sit –
Russell Wilson – Wilson is still injured and his top targets are a little banged up as well, on top of that he’s up against the Jets D that are still pretty good at defending the pass.
Eli Manning – Eli has been off to a slow start as well and going up against Minnesota, which has been the best defense in the league by far, won’t be his spring board.
Matt Ryan – Ryan has been a pleasant surprise this year, but a matchup against the Panthers will be sure to slow him down.
Jameis Winston – He’s been doing well so far, but Denver is slightly better than Atlanta’s and LA’s defense.
Running Backs
Studs – David Johnson, Lamar Miller, CJ Anderson, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott
Start –
Mark Ingram – Finally had a great week last week and gets a chance to take advantage of the San Diego defense.
DeMarco Murray – Houston isn’t actually as great at stopping the run as you’d think and Murray is running like its 2014 again, might be a Stud soon.
LeGarrett Blount – The Patriots are banged up at QB so Blount will be getting the rock 20+ times again this week. Don’t overthink it.
Isaiah Crowell – Had a bit of a down week last week, but the Redskins couldn’t stop a man in a wheelchair carrying the rock.
Jeremy Hill – The man highlighted above, had a good week last week and should look to continue his success against a weak Miami run game.
Sit –
Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman – Hard to tell you to sit a tandem that scored 4 touchdowns last week and close to 300 yards from scrimmage, but the Panthers provide a much more difficult task than New Orleans.
Christine Michael – Even though he may be getting all the carries from this backfield, he goes up against arguably the best run defense in the NFL in the NY Jets.
Todd Gurley – I took him off the Stud list because he’s offering a 2.9 YPC average so far this season. Arizona will look to stop the run and force LA to beat them through the air.
Jerick McKinnon/Matt Asiata – This run game for Minnesota looks like crap so far this year and the Giant’s D has been considerably better than last year, look elsewhere this week.
Orleans Darkwa – This is assuming Jennings is out anyway, Minnesota has been the best defense so far this year and the Giants will try to strike through the air in order to stay competitive.
Wide Receivers
Studs – Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr, Julio Jones, AJ Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans
Start –
Terrelle Pryor – Cleveland leans on their top receiver which is apparently Terrelle Pryor for now, also it never hurts when your WR can come in to throw a few passes in the event the starting QB gets hurt.
Doug Baldwin – Baldwin went nuts last week and should look to have a big day against the Jets since they won’t be able to run the ball much against their stout front 7.
Golden Tate – Tate has taken an early back seat to Marvin Jones, but Tate should look to have a good day against the Bear’s defense this week.
Mike Wallace – Oakland has been giving up a plethora of yards to opposing WRs so far this season and it looks to be a good matchup for Wallace to go crazy again if he can connect with Flacco a few times.
Travis Benjamin – See Rivers, Phillip above.
Sit –
Brandon Marshall/Eric Decker – Fitzgerald threw 6 picks last week, 6, yes, 6. You really want to rely on this to feed these 2 monsters against the legion of boom? No thank you.
Dez Bryant – Dez has an apparent hairline fracture, Dak has been relying more on his TE and RBs to carry the rock, and Frisco’s defense has been improved compared to last year. Oh, and he may not play sooo.
Sterling Shephard – He’s playing Minnesota, see what I wrote about Eli Manning above.
Michael Floyd/John Brown – Neither one of these 2 have been performing well so I want to see some life before I’m confident throwing them out every week.
DeVante Parker – Landry should be exploiting the weakness in the Bengal’s secondary in covering the slot, they are much better at covering receivers on the outside which is exactly where Parker is every week.
Tight Ends
Studs – Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker
Start –
Kyle Rudolph – Bradford still has a long way to go to master the playbook so checking down to his TE should continue to be in the game plan.
Coby Fleener – I was big on Fleener going into the season, but until last week he looked to be on a completely different page than Brees so far. He will be a great play this week if he can keep the chemistry going in San Diego.
Dennis Pitta – Like I said last week, Pitta is Flacco’s favorite target. If he’s healthy he should be started in every fantasy league.
Sit –
Jacob Tamme – Tamme looks to have found the fountain of youth in Atlanta, but I believe more in the Panther’s defense than I do in the Falcon’s offense. They will start their yearly decline sometime soon. Don’t forget they were 4-0 to begin last year and finished 8-8.
Charles Clay – Tyrod Taylor can’t throw the ball, Clay isn’t getting more than 4 targets a game so far this year, sit boy sit.
Clive Walford – Walford is a potential breakout candidate of mine this year, but Baltimore’s defense is much improved over last year, especially against the opposing TE game.
