AFC East
New England Patriots (6-2) –
Offensive Points per Game (7th) Yards per Game (1st) –
- Pretty much what I expected from them, but the ground game has been a little weaker than I expected. They have been battling injuries offensively with the obvious loss of Julian Edelman early, but they have kept themselves afloat and will continue their offensive success if they can remain healthy.
Defensive PPG Allowed (18th) YPG Allowed (32nd) –
- The Pats have just been brutal defensively to start the season, but they have started to turn it around as of late. We are used to seeing a Patriots defense in the upper third of the league, so they should continue to take steps in the right direction, but their ceiling is likely the league average.
Players above expectations –
- Chris Hogan, wow, has he really put it together this season. They desperately needed him to step up in the absence of Edelman and step up he has. I fully expect him to continue his success moving forward, as long as he appears healthy.
- Tom Brady, the man is ancient in football terms and he’s still having an MVP caliber season. In trading away Garoppolo it appears they are confident he’s got a few seasons still left in him; I wouldn’t bet against that.
Players below expectations –
- Brandin Cooks, a lot was suspected of him going into this season as he was a top 10 pick in many drafts. He has had one monster game so far this season, but other than that he has been fairly quiet but reliable nonetheless. With the current injury to Hogan and Gronk always getting hurt I do think he can improve as the season progresses.
- Rex Burkhead, many thought Gillislee was overhyped coming into the season and with Burkhead’s pass-catching ability I thought he’d end up being an RB2 come season’s end; so far, not so much. He has missed a month due to injury and Gillislee has fallen off a cliff since scoring 4 TDs in the 1st 2 weeks so there is still hope here ladies and gentlemen.
2nd Half Outlook –
- The Pats have lost 2 games at home already this season and were very close to giving away 2 others, not what you expect from the Patriots. Expect them to establish the run more in the 2nd half in order to keep their QB and his targets fresh. They will be in the playoffs once again this year and that is going to happen with a division title.
Buffalo Bills (5-2) –
Offensive Points per Game (T-15th) Yards per Game (25th) –
- Didn’t expect much from this offense to enter the season and that’s exactly what they have done. The surprising part is how bad McCoy has been. He’s getting the touches most games but this top 5 rushing attack from 2016 has been far from that so far this season.
Defensive PPG Allowed (3rd) YPG Allowed (22nd) –
- This defense started off the season as one of the best and in terms of PPG allowed they have remained that way. The change has been that opposing teams have recently been able to throw on them and that is why their YPG is not equally as good as their PPG given up.
Players above expectations –
- Bills’ Defense, as a unit they have played much better than I anticipated so far this season, but I don’t really expect that to decline down the stretch. They do have a tough 3 game stretch against NO, LAR, and KC coming up though.
Players below expectations –
- LeSean (Shady) McCoy, as I mentioned above, he just hasn’t had the juice he has had recently in Buffalo. Maybe the wheels are starting to fall off the train for him, but you know they aren’t going to give the ball to anybody else.
- Jordan Matthews, he’s been hampered with injuries so far this season (surprising, I know), but his best statline to date is 3/61/0. Getting rid of Watkins before the season was fine with me, but J Matt has done nothing in his stead.
2nd Half Outlook –
- There are a few easy victories in their future but the other games in the schedule will be tough to say the least. With the recent addition of Kelvin Benjamin this passing game may be able to kick some rust off the tires like Shady has been able to do these past couple weeks. I see them making the wildcard, but it will be no easy task.
Miami Dolphins (4-3) –
Offensive Points per Game (32nd) Yards per Game (32nd) –
- Dead last in both, now I’ll admit I am a bit surprised to see that, but I didn’t expect much more. The thing they had going for them last year was the run game and since that hasn’t done squat this season, these numbers kind of explain themselves.
Defensive PPG Allowed (T-15th) YPG Allowed (7th) –
- More-or-less what I had anticipated. This defense has some big-name guys on it and might even be better if their offense could keep them off the field for any amount of time. Throw them on another team that can control the clock and they’d be a top 5 unit in my opinion.
Players above expectations –
- Jarvis Landry, I will admit that I was slightly off with my prediction on Landry this year. Cutler is known as a gunslinger and catching deep balls is just not what Landry does. Now, Cutler has been absolutely pathetic, so it seems check downs have worked out well for Landry thus far.
Players below expectations –
- Jay Ajayi, if you read what I wrote before the season you’ll know that I was not an Ajayi fan going into this season. I thought he was at best an RB2 but with 0 TDs on the year and only 2 catches a game he has been very disappointing. Let’s see how he does in Philadelphia.
- DeVante Parker, I was all in on Parker knowing full-well that Cutler loves to toss it deep. Now, in my defense, he has missed 3 weeks AND has already had his bye, but he hasn’t been great to start the season. The arrow is still pointing up though so don’t give up on him just yet!
2nd Half Outlook –
- They just traded away Ajayi and were robbed in only getting a 4th round pick for him. Now is the time to cash in and start rebuilding for this team if you ask me. Tannehill just hasn’t done it for them and this defense is only going to cost them more and more money in the upcoming seasons.
New York Jets (3-5) –
Offensive Points per Game (21st) Yards per Game (23rd) –
- Much better than I expected. If you would have asked me before the season who would be 3-5 and 0-8 between the Jets and the Browns I would have said the Jets were winless. This offense has found a way to move the ball through the air with players I have never heard of and will never roster in fantasy, good for them.
Defensive PPG Allowed (22nd) YPG Allowed (26th) –
- Both sides of the ball for this team surprise me in different ways. This defense was expected to be one of the better units in the league, but because of the offense projected to be ghastly, league-average was a better expectation. I do see both numbers here getting better by the end of the season but eventually it will be time to bring in the young guns and call it a season.
Players above expectations –
- Josh McCown, Currently ranked 8th in scoring in my home league which is fairly standard. 28th definitely seemed the more appropriate number before the season began. Anyway, he has only 2 games with more picks thrown than TDs which is good considering he’s played some tough defenses on the year, but his only 300+ yard passing game was against the Pats.
- Robby Anderson/Jermaine Kearse, ranked 21st and 32nd respectively in my league at the WR position (which is far above what I expected for any NY Jet WR this season). The ball does have to be thrown to somebody and even though Austin Seferian-Jenkins has been pretty good as of late, these guys have been solid and should be used in solid matchups.
Players below expectations –
- Bilal Powell, I really expected him to take off this season considering he was a league-winner last year for many fantasy players. Forte is showing signs of aging, which is precisely what I expected, but Powell just hasn’t capitalized on the few touches he has gotten. This has turned into a full-blown committee approach and I doubt that changes soon.
- Jets’ Defense, as I mentioned above I expected this unit to be solid, but they have been pretty much useless with a number of good matchups to start the season. The schedule only gets tougher from here on out with a gauntlet to finish the season.
2nd Half Outlook –
- Considering 3-5 is much better than I expected I’d say that they start to decline moving forward. They don’t have the talent to make the playoffs and their schedule down the stretch includes many playoff contenders, if anything they should stop winning now and get the best draft-picks possible for next season.
