NFL Midpoint Evaluation: AFC North

by | Nov 6, 2017 | Sports

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) –

Offensive Points per Game (20th) Yards per Game (11th) –

  • I’d have to say that both of these are surprising to me as I considered them having one of the best, if not THE best offense in the NFL heading into the season. Ben has definitely showed some signs of aging, but he is still capable of making some great throws.  With Bryant starting slow and OC Todd Haley being content running the ball 35 times a game in order to win, I don’t see these numbers improving greatly but they should improve overall.

Defensive PPG Allowed (2nd) YPG Allowed (4th) –

  • Now this is definitely a pleasant surprise. I knew the defense would get better as their young studs gain more experience and they had a good draft, but top 5 in both categories was unpredictable.  They truly have a dominant defense and although it may slip a bit in both categories, I don’t expect them to leave the single digits in either.

Players above expectations –

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster, he was a 2nd round pick in the draft, but considering the return of Bryant and the emergence of Eli Rodgers last year I wasn’t sure that JuJu would even see the field this year. He has definitely taken on the Bryant role this season and has shown that he can be a great player moving forward.

Players below expectations –

  • Martavis Bryant, there was just as good of a chance of Bryant coming back and either just plain sucking or getting suspended as there was a chance of him returning to a top 15 WR. He has been seeing some targets, but hasn’t done much with them and his current social-media campaign isn’t going to garner any further attention from Big Ben on the gridiron.
  • Le’Veon Bell, to be he honest this is kind of a cop-out because he has been nothing but the best RB in fantasy this past month. However, the first 2 weeks of the season were very unlike Bell, but that can be explained by the holdout.  Still very much worth that 2nd spot.

2nd Half Outlook –

  • It seemed that before the season that this team was destined for a division title and even a potential #1 seed entering the playoffs. Even with 2 embarrassing losses this still holds true for a team with an up-and-coming defense that is playing lights-out and an offense that isn’t firing on all cylinders yet. The ladder should be nothing but frightening for the rest of the league considering the playmakers they have on that offense.

Baltimore Ravens (4-4) –

Offensive Points per Game (17th) Yards per Game (31st) –

  • Oddly funny that they are scoring points at a league-average rate yet they are 2nd worst in the league in moving the football down the field. Flacco just seems lost in the pocket and can’t connect on deep passes which is how he has made a living so far in his NFL career.  Pair that with all of the injuries they have sustained and the 1st number isn’t quite so surprising.

Defensive PPG Allowed (6th) YPG Allowed (10th) –

  • These numbers are more like it. The one thing most people think about when you bring up AFC North football is a stingy defense.  Such is the case this year between the 3 teams that actually have a win in this division.  The Ravens fortified their aging defense through the draft (just as the Steelers have done) and that is the sole reason why they are at .500.

Players above expectations –

  • Ravens’ Defense, #2 overall with not one, but two shutouts on the season and scoring double-digit points in over half of their games on the season is not what anybody was expecting from this unit. Better offenses are on their upcoming schedule so a decline is likely but they are playing as a unit that shouldn’t come out of your starting lineup.
  • Javorius “Buck” Allen, Buck had a decent year last year coming in after injuries took hold of this offense, but he has come back to be one of the most reliable pass-catching options not only for this offense, but in the NFL as a receiving back as a whole. This team keeps games close with their defense and cannot pull away offensively so expect him to hold steady.

Players below expectations –

  • Joe Flacco, let me make this easy, the Ravens beat the Dolphins 40-0 and Flacco only had 10 points in my fairly-standard league. He’s been putrid and the play-callers are fine running the ball nearly every down in order to win the game.  I’ll remind everyone that the second he signed that gaudy contract after the Super Bowl this team was headed for dumpsville.
  • Mike Wallace/Jeremy Maclin, Wallace and Maclin both had pretty good seasons last year and there was no reason to suspect them dropping off as much as they have. Maybe the situation can improve for the both of them, but I’m really not holding my breath.
  • Justin Tucker, honorary mention for this guy. Tucker has always been a reliable kicking option in fantasy and is ALWAYS over-drafted in every league I’m in. This is EXACTLY why you wait on drafting your kicker folks; please refer to the Fantasy Foundation if you are unaware of what I am referring to.  I’ll admit it’s not entirely his fault, but that’s irrelevant.

2nd Half Outlook –

  • The Ravens will continue to run the ball, struggle throwing the ball downfield, and also keep opposing teams off the board. I said to myself before the season that the Ravens would be a .500 team with a ceiling of 9 wins.  That still holds true here, but finishing at 7-9 is much more likely than 9-7 at this point.  I don’t see them making the playoffs as a wildcard.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) –

Offensive Points per Game (9th) Yards per Game (30th) –

  • Another odd pairing here, I will have to say that the YPG is the more surprising number of the two. Dalton moved the ball at will at times last season but he’s never been considered one of the best QBs in the league.  With the addition of Joe Mixon in the draft everybody thought this team might be the best at running the ball, they’re currently 30th.

Defensive PPG Allowed (9th) YPG Allowed (5th) –

  • The defense here is solid yet again, just as I said, AFC North football. Currently ranked 2nd in passing YPG allowed this season the Bengals have been stingy to say the least.  A tougher road ahead should bring out the true colors of this cat but they will still be able to call themselves one of the better units in the league come season’s end.

Players above expectations –

  • AJ Green, if I’m being completely honest this is almost exactly where I expected Green to be. My top WRs heading into the season were AB, OBJ, Julio, Evans, and Green, in that order.  So 1 spot isn’t enough for me to say he’s above my expectations but there was literally nobody else I felt comfortable putting here so Green was my choice.

Players below expectations –

  • Joe Mixon, mainly going with Mixon because I was assuming at this point he would have taken control of this backfield and shown us why he was one of the best RBs entering this draft. Mixon seemingly has a firm grip on the starting job here, but he is not getting things done on the field.  This is mostly the fault of their pathetic O-line, but not entirely.

2nd Half Outlook –

  • The Bengals 2nd half will likely look much like their 1st.I  pegged them as a team that could be around .500, but things would drastically need to break their way in order for them to make the playoffs.  I see them committing to their run game more as the season comes to a close, but to keep getting AJ the ball in the meantime.  No playoffs for them.

Cleveland Browns (0-8) –

Offensive Points per Game (31st) Yards per Game (26th) –

  • Anyone surprised by this must be either in an insane asylum or living in Cleveland…then again, what’s the difference? The worst team in football has one of the worst offenses in the league; there is nothing surprising about that.  With Hue Jackson calling the plays, we knew this would try to be a run-oriented team, but game flow has not really permitted that.

Defensive PPG Allowed (27th) YPG Allowed (9th) –

  • What may surprise you here is the YPG allowed. Cleveland is 6th overall in terms of rushing YPG allowed but they are still a sieve in the secondary.  They are keeping games from getting out of hand by locking down on the opposing team’s running game.  I can see this team making strides going forward, but just like with Miami, the offense slows the defense.

Players above expectations –

  • Duke Johnson Jr., to predict that a pass-catching back would do well on a team that would be losing early and often isn’t really going out on a limb. To think he would average over 10 points per game in a 0.5 PPR league and be the #16 ranked RB is.  That is exactly what he has done so far this season and I don’t see his usage dipping at all moving forward.

Players below expectations –

  • Isaiah Crowell, taken as a low RB1 in most drafts, Crowell has broken 100 total yards from scrimmage just once this season and scored only 1 time so far, and both happened in the same game. Game flow just is not in his favor as the Browns are perpetually losing and DJ is their guy on passing downs.  I recommended staying away from him on draft day, hopefully you all listened.

2nd Half Outlook –

  • Considering they currently have no wins I’m going to reach here and say they have a better record in the 2nd half of the season, crazy, I know. The schedule doesn’t get any easier as they are the worst team in football, but another season with the 1st overall pick and maybe they can pull out 3 or 4 in 2018.

 

*Featured image courtesy of thegamehaus.com*