NFL Midpoint Evaluation: AFC South

by | Nov 6, 2017 | Sports

AFC South

Tennessee Titans (4-3) –

Offensive Points per Game (13th) Yards per Game (18th) –

  • The split doesn’t really surprise me as it tends to mean that the running game has been successful. This offense has really struggled at times as evidence of their not-so-great losses to the Dolphins and Texans, but they’ve also put up some points in scoring 30+ on the Seahawks and Jaguars.  If they can be more consistent they should have some fantasy producers in the 2nd half, but that starts with the running game.

Defensive PPG Allowed (26th) YPG Allowed (16th) –

  • Odd on the PPG allowed as there was a lot of hype entering the season with this Dick LeBeau orchestrated defense but they definitely have room for improvement. They tend to be tough to run on but the secondary is their weak spot.  If the offense can control the clock with their running game that does put some pressure on their secondary to produce, but forces the other team to make plays.

Players above expectations –

  • Ryan Succop, didn’t really have anyone else to put here and it’s sad that the only one is the kicker, but he’s 2nd in scoring at the time that I’m writing this.

Players below expectations –

  • Marcus Mariota, really thought he had a chance to truly break out since it seemed that he finally had weapons to work with. He’s been hampered by a hamstring injury and his targets don’t seem to really get open, but the slate has been wiped clean with the bye week and after the next 3 tough matchups (BAL, CIN, @PIT) the schedule gets much easier.
  • DeMarco Murray, I wasn’t very high on him prior to the season anyway, but he’s only scored twice, broken 100 yards only once (thanks to a 75 yard scamper), and doesn’t really catch passes. Now the OL doesn’t seem to be giving anyone any room based on the lack of production from Henry as well, but it seems Murray’s best days are behind him.

2nd Half Outlook –

  • Not too bright if I’m being honest but after the next 3 games the schedule will be much easier and Mariota should finally be healthy after that. They need the defense and the OL to come together and this team can be a solid unit that should make the playoffs as a wildcard.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3) –

Offensive Points per Game (8th) Yards per Game (12th) –

  • The Jags were one of the worst teams in the league last year and that all started with their anemic offense.  Bortles has been surprisingly better this year (not good, better) and the addition of Leonard Fournette through the draft has made all of the difference in the world for this team offensively.  You’ll notice that trend when PPG is higher than YPG.

Defensive PPG Allowed (1st) YPG Allowed (6th) –

  • Also surprising, but to a much lesser extent. Last year I thought to myself that Jacksonville’ defense would be one of the best units in the league if they could get any amount of help from their offense.  This has shown to be true and with the offense controlling the ball better and their recent draft picks gaining experience every year this defense will be one of the best in the league for years to come.

Players above expectations –

  • Leonard Fournette, I didn’t think this OL was that good considering how bad the run game was last year, but Fournette has been amazing to start this season. He was banged up and didn’t play against Indy, but my feeling was that he would have played if it were a playoff game; it was a conservative call since their bye week was the following week.
  • Jaguars Defense, as I mentioned above this defense had all the talent in the world last year, but at this point they are the #1 scoring defense and they have 4 defensive touchdowns so far this year.

Players below expectations –

  • Blake Bortles, it’s not that he really played below my expectations because my expectations were that he would be benched at this point in the season, but I didn’t really have anyone else to put here. He’s the 27th ranked QB in fantasy right now so he isn’t good at all, but this team has been very surprising in a good way to start the season.

2nd Half Outlook –

  • The way this team has played to this point in the season has been exactly the way they scripted it: the defense is playing lights-out, Fournette can’t be stopped on the ground, and Bortles isn’t throwing it to the team in different-colored jerseys as often. If they keep this up this division is probably the most winnable in football, I see them walking away with the division title.

Houston Texans (3-4) –

Offensive Points per Game (1st) Yards per Game (10th) –

  • This all had to do with the emergence of Deshaun Watson. This offense was pathetic last year and really didn’t make any changes other than the drafting of Watson; he had absolutely carried this team since week 2, but with the recent injury news this does not look good going forward for them.

Defensive PPG Allowed (29th) YPG Allowed (18th) –

  • Surprising considering this unit had aspirations to be the best in the league but since losing Watt early and a number of other injuries this defense has just not been able to stop anyone. Moving forward I don’t see much production coming from them, they need to add a few players in the draft this upcoming season and hope Watson comes back healthy in 2018.

Players above expectations –

  • Deshaun Watson, I thought he would be overvalued in the draft because of the Championship Game against Alabama, but he was throwing TD passes left and right starting in week 2. The only thing that stopped him was his own ACL, as it seems, and unfortunately we will have to wait until 2018 to see if Watson can prove that he is the real deal.
  • DeAndre Hopkins, after being drafted in the top 5 at the WR position and absolutely falling flat last season, Hopkins was tentatively being drafted toward the end of the 2nd and early 3rd rounds this year. It seems he had a connection with Watson and showed the world what he can do when he has a QB that can actually get him the ball, but unfortunately he’s back to Savage.
  • Will Fuller V, Fuller currently has a TD reception rate at an un-sustainable 54% since rejoining the team in week 4. That rate HAS to decline as it is higher than the highest average in NFL history and with Savage taking the reins we know that is going to enter a free-fall.

Players below expectations –

  • D’Onta Foreman, this isn’t so much a knock against Foreman but I really thought he may take the job from Miller as Miller was simply uninspiring last season. With Miller kicking it into gear it hasn’t given Foreman much room to step into the spotlight, but I think he may start to establish himself as the future RB of this team toward the end of this season.

2nd Half Outlook –

  • With the unfortunate news of Deshaun Watson tearing his ACL in practice, this team went from a savvy playoff contender to a potential high 1st round draft pick come spring. I had initially pegged them for a wildcard birth, but they have shown that they can’t get it done without a viable starter at QB.  Next year they will definitely have high aspirations if the team can stay healthy, but for now they should just be looking toward the future.

Indianapolis Colts (2-6) –

Offensive Points per Game (25th) Yards per Game (28th) –

  • Neither are really surprising since Andrew Luck hasn’t played a down and will not play a down this season (just placed on IR for those unaware). The O-line is not good and they didn’t really do much to remedy that during the offseason, the running game is boring behind future Hall-of-Famer Frank Gore, and the QB situation behind Luck to start the season was comparable to a black hole, there was nothing.

Defensive PPG Allowed (32nd) YPG Allowed (31st) –

  • This is equally as unsurprising as the offense can do nothing to assist the defense and I really can’t name a single player from this defense. They are definitely one of the worst in football as a unit and management hasn’t done their part to make them better.  No improvement exists on the horizon for this defense this season, maybe next year with a healthy draft.

Players above expectations –

  • Jacoby Brissett, the Colts must have sensed that Andrew Luck was nowhere near to playing at the start of the season and everybody knew Scott Tolzien is pathetic, so signing Brissett was a definite option for them. He’s been pretty good so far this season, ranking as the 15th best QB in fantasy through 8 weeks, even after a tough showing against LA in the opening week.  He’s definitely a good backup option moving forward, but knowing Luck’s lengthy injury history he is going to have to start a few games now and then as well.
  • Jack Doyle, Indy committed to Doyle and he’s showing them exactly why they made the right choice. Currently ranked as the 5th best TE in fantasy, Doyle has shown prowess in being a reliable target in the middle of the field and in the red zone.  He should continue to be successful for the rest of the season moving forward, just maybe not as the #5 TE.

Players below expectations –

  • TY Hilton, TY has the talent to be a top 5 WR, but has the tendency to fade from relevance at times. Drafters this season probably expected Luck to be back by now which would have made TY much more valuable.  He currently has 2 weeks with 7 catches and over 150 yards and 6 weeks with less than 60 yards.  His lows have simply not been worth the highs to this point and that is not likely change by the end of the season.

2nd Half Outlook –

  • The Colts do have 2 wins, but it’s hard to project them winning much more than that moving forward. The fewer wins the better in my opinion because this team has needs seemingly everywhere.  They need to get Luck healthy, but even then he isn’t reliable to start every game for them.  They may have a QB controversy in the future if Brissett can keep up the success, knowing fully that Luck is incapable of giving them a full season.