NL Central Preview

Last season the three best records in baseball were in the NL Central, an unprecedented turn of events that had Rob Manfried weeping with gratitude that Bud Selig added a second wild card team before he rode off into the sunset.  It is highly unlikely that the Cardinals, Pirats, and Cubs bulldoze their way to another dominant finish, however this remains one of the most competitive races in the NL, so let’s break it down by the numbers.

Division Winner:  Chicago Cubs (2015 Record: 97 – 65)

I know I know, real shocker here.  I am throwing my name in with the hundred other self satisfied prognosticators who are jumping on the Cubs bandwagon, however there are two reasons why it would be very hard to pick against them1. Depth

The Cubs have what managers often say is the best kind of problem, which is a plethora of quality options.  With the addition of Jason Heyward in the offseason and the unexpected retention of Dexter Fowler, the Cubs now have four people competing for three outfield spots, in addition to having infielder Javier Baez bouncing around the infield without a position since Ben Zobrist was added to hold down second base.  This works out to approximately 10 major league caliber regulars competing to fill 8 positions, which is something that Joe Maddon is well equipped to deal with.

2.  Youth

The anchor of the Cubs lineup, Anthony Rizzo, is 26 years old.  The most prolific hitters on the team, to include Rizzo, Russell, Bryant, Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, and Baez, are all 26 years old or younger.  Even discounting the fact that the addition of Heyward and Zobrist shores up any weak spots in the order, it is reasonable to project growth across the board going into this season based on player development alone.

At the end of the day I think that the Pirates and Cardinals are too good to allow the Cubs to run away with the division.  The bullpen bears watching as well since three out of the five main contributors had a FIP which outstripped their ERA by at least a full run (Cahill, Rondon, Grimm, Source: Baseball Reference).  But these are small nits to pick and I fully believe that this is the year that the Cubs break the 108 Curse of the Billy goat! (Sentence included to roil Chicago fans, not for predictive purposes)

Pittsburgh Pirates (2015 Record: 98 – 64)

While the Cubs got markedly better this offseason, the Pirates and Cardinals have either stagnated or become worse.  The Pirates rotation had the third-highest WAR figure among all 30 teams in the league in 2015 (source: fangraphs).  In addition to an exemplary year by Gerrit Cole the pirates were helped along by strong years by A.J. Burnett and J.A. Happ, both of whom have left and been replaced by Jon Niese and Allen Webster.  How you interpret this change depends largely on whether you believe that Burnett and Happ’s success was based on their innate talents or if it was helped along by pitching coach Ray Searage.  I am of the mind that Jon Niese is not an adequate replacement for the talented Burnett.  It is a situation that bears watching going forward.

The Pirates do have youth waiting in the wings in the form of Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow, two top flight arms who project to be possible number 1 starters in the coming years, but they have already been assigned to the minors and factoring them in to this projection would be pre-emptive.

The Pirates have a chance to overtake the Cubs if Gregory Polanco has a breakout season (something I think is more likely by the day), and the bullpen makes up for a lack of star power in the rotation.  Regardless the Cubs will outslug the Pirates by a fair amount no matter how the projections fall, and in the face of that sort of firepower it is difficult to predict that the Bucs will place higher than second place.

St. Louis Cardinals (2015 Record: 100 – 62)

This prediction is less of an indictment on the Cardinals’ 2016 hopes and more of a reality check on an outlier year in 2015.  The team’s three most prolific hitters in terms of WAR in 2015 all had a BAbip significantly higher than their batting average (source: Baseball Reference).  In addition to that the two players with the highest WAR on the team, John Lackey (5.7) and Jason Heyward (6.5), not only left the team in the offseason but went to the Cubs.  Jhonny Peralta’s injury further detracts from a lineup that looks increasingly depleted.

All is not lost though, as the Cardinals still have solid rotational depth and the full season return of Adam Wainwright to look forward to.  The bullpen is solid with Trevor Rosenthal continuing anchor the late innings.  The Cardinals have signed Ruben Tejada to compensate for Peralta’s absence and are optimistic that Yadier Molina will make a triumphant return from thumb surgery.

The Cardinals are a team that traditionally laugh in the face of tempered expectations.  The squad routinely finds ways to outperform projections and have a clubhouse culture of success and high expectations that may compensate for some statistical shortcomings.  That being said it is hard to see a route to the division title that doesn’t involve injuries to the Cubs or a midseason trade.

Cincinnati Reds (2015 Record: 68 – 94)

It was difficult to pick between the two dumpster fires at the bottom of the NL Central and say “Which one smells better?”.

The Reds benefit from not finding a landing spot for Jay Bruce and the untradeable contract of Joey Votto.  Billy Hamilton continues to steal bases at a high rate however his abysmal OBP of .286 makes him a dreadful leadoff hitter.

With Homer Bailey continuing to recover from Tommy John Surgery the Reds rotation figures to be one of the most unpredictable in baseball.  I expect to see more rookies go through the revolving door of starters to see what sticks and who can be used to build on for the future.

If you’re a Reds fan, enjoy Joey Votto and Zack Cozart for eight at-bats a game and spend the other 21 at-bats desperately cutting up your Aroldis Chapman and Todd Frazier baseball cards.

Milwaukee Brewers (2015 Record: 68-94)

Where to begin.

I am actually pleasantly surprised that the Brewers acquired Chris Carter to man the cleanup spot in their lineup, making the sight slightly more palatable than what I only imagine would have been Scooter Gennett hitting number four.

There isn’t much to say.  Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy are the only serviceable hitters in the lineup (Domingo Santana is not serviceable, before you all pounce in the comments section).  Matt Garza hasn’t been an ace since I was in high school, and alternative ace Wily Peralta isn’t much better with his 1.42 WHIP.  Adding to the woes of fans is the fact that Lucroy will surely be traded before the end of the summer, although if the Brewers are trying to emulate the Astros then this strategy seems fitting.

The only bright spot I see for fans is the continuing progression of Jimmy Nelson.  Nelson has encouraging periods but I would like to see his strikeout numbers come up a bit this year.  Even with arguably disappointing strikeout totals he still has the highest swinging strike percentage on the team, which says more about the rotation than Nelson’s skills.

If I’m a Brewers fan I’m circling 2018 on my imaginary calendar, because they are likely going to occupy the basement of an otherwise exciting division until that point.

 

Featured Image from Jerry Lai/USA TODAY Sports