Earlier in the year, on May 14th to be exact, the Supreme Court ruled that a law formed in 1992, which prohibited gambling on sports, violated the rights given to us by the constitution. What that means is: I no longer have to make some shady, off-shore transactions in order to be able to bet on sporting events. When this law was repealed, many expected an increase in the money spent on sports gambling, and for good reason: not only was it difficult to legally gamble for the majority of the U.S. population, but the fact that it was illegal turned many off to it. Because of the change, many people have started to dabble in the world of sports wagering. That’s why I’m here, to explain the basics of sports betting, and to help the everyday man get an edge in a world where there isn’t much help. I think it is important to point out that gambling has brought out the worst in many people over the course of time. This is obviously real money people are risking; things can, and do, get ugly if someone can’t control themselves. If you do feel that you, or someone you know, may have a gambling addiction, please contact this toll-free hotline at 1-800-GAMBLER. Now, that I’ve covered that, onto the fun side of sports betting!
If you are an seasoned veteran when it comes to gambling, and just want to see the trends that I follow when it comes to betting, scroll down to the more advanced material. For everyone else, let’s go over some of the basics.
The Basics
Where to Bet
The most popular place to bet on sports is obviously in Vegas, for those of us who can’t go there every weekend, there are some alternative options. I gamble using a very popular website (which I won’t name here) where I was required to make a deposit to some fake, offshore company. There are plenty of websites like this, but if you are in a state that has legalized gambling, see some local establishments you can visit, or check if there is an app you can use online. From my understanding, many casinos are now taking wagers on sporting events so that would be the first place I would look.
What to Bet on
Personally, I stick with what I feel like I know. I am a huge baseball fan, but I don’t follow the MLB all that well outside of my local teams. I will bet periodically on certain games, but baseball can be difficult because it is an individual sport masked as a team sport. What I really love to bet on is football. I primarily stick to the NFL, but I do watch college football here and there, so sometimes I will bet on the NCAA. I have heard from many experts that the NHL tends to be more fruitful when it comes to betting, and that the NBA sees a ton of action; personally, I stay away from both. Horse betting can be fun too, but I see it as something to do when at the track, which I do not visit often.
Payouts
Before I get into the different kind of bets, I think it’s important to understand the money that is being spent vs. the money that can be made. Every bet made will have odds attached to it, this is a number (whether positive or negative) that indicates the potential winnings from the bet. If the number is negative, that means that you will have to bet that much to win $100 (you don’t actually have to bet that much, it is a ratio that is based on $100 for simplicity). If the number is positive, you will win that much if you bet $100.
Here’s an example of this: the Steelers are playing the Ravens. The odds for the Steelers to win are (-110) and for the Ravens to win are (+115). Just by looking at this, you can conclude that the “house” (the establishment taking the wagers) thinks that the Steelers are more likely to win, but it’s close. If you bet $100 on the Ravens, and they win, you get back $215 ($100 from your wager, plus $115 in winnings). If you bet $5 on the Steelers and they win, you get back $9.55 ($5 from your bet, and $4.55 from your winnings). These numbers can go very high in either direction, and this is where gambling can get tricky. Let’s use another example here; if the Bills play the Patriots, the Patriots will likely be heavily favored, and the odds for them will probably be close to (-1000). This means that risking $100 in favor of the Patriots will yield a whopping $10 if they win, not worth the risk. On the other hand, the Bills will likely be (+650) or something of that nature, which means a $100 bet will earn $650, plus the initial bet. Keep in mind, bets like these tend to be sucker bets, meaning it seems enticing at the surface, but it isn’t worth doing. People will throw down a dollar or 2 on the Bills on the off chance that they happen to win, but this almost never happens, and the house takes all that money, exactly what they want. Just as an FYI, you won’t typically see (-100) and (+100), they mean the same thing, and are usually indicated as EVEN, which means a $5 bet wins $5, plus the initial bet.
Now, as for why the house has odds; the house isn’t going to pay you $5 on a $5 bet every time, or they won’t make money. When bets are truly seen as 50/50, the odds attached to that will typically be (-110). This is because no matter who wins the bet, the house makes money. If side A wins, they only pay out $9.10 on a $10 bet, and the same for side B; the house makes money on each bet placed, as long as there are a relatively even amount of bets placed on both sides.
Different Types of Bets
Alright, let’s get into the meat and potatoes here. When it comes to betting on sports, there are 5 major types of bets: the moneyline, the spread, the over/under, parlays, and prop betting. Let’s start with the easiest bet, the moneyline.
Now, if you are looking for a really simple bet, the moneyline is the place to go. I just went over odds, so you already understand how the moneyline works. The moneyline is literally just the odds for either team to win the game. Now, in close games where the odds are under (-200), those are the games you typically want to target. These games will have a more difficult outcome to predict, but the bet you place will pay out better than if the odds are much greater, such as (-1000). Now, should you always avoid games with terrible odds? No, because there is a different type of bet you can make…
The spread. As you saw in my previous example of the Bills and Patriots, not many people are going to want to bet on that. Sure, the Patriots are most likely going to win, but do you really want to risk $100 for $10? The smart answer of course, is no. So, in order to keep the action coming in on games like this, there exists what is called the “spread”. The spread is what the house thinks the winning team will win by. Let’s say the Patriots are listed as 10 point favorites (-10), this means that not only are they expected to win (indicated by the “–” sign), but they are expected to win by 10 or more points. This creates a whole new level of thinking when it comes to betting. A team that is (+10) means that they can straight up win, or lose by fewer than that number of points, and the wager will be won. However, if the team loses by any more than that amount, you lose your bet. In our example of Patriots (-10), if the final score is 31-20 in favor of the Patriots, and you chose the Patriots, you win. 31-22 and you’re a big loser. Now, if the final is 31-21, and the spread is hit exactly, the house refunds your bet at no cost to you.
What I consider the easiest bet to understand (but one of my least favorites to make) is the point total, sometimes referred to as the over/under (O/U for short). This is what the house has set as the total number of points that will be scored in the game. This number is completely independent of who wins the game. Let’s go with 2 new football teams in the Bears and the Packers. Let’s say that the O/U is 56, this means that, regardless of outcome, the total number of points scored has been projected to be 56. Your bet will either be over, under, or exactly that number. If you took the over, and the final was 24-27 (51 points), you lose. If you took the under, and the score was the same, you would win. The same thing applies to O/U bets as the spread, if the score is exactly the number chosen, your bet is refunded. This is often times why spreads and point totals are listed with a ½ point. It is obviously not possible for a team to score half of a point in any sport, so using this makes it so that no bets are refunded, and there is always a clear-cut winner.
Next, are parlays. Parlays aren’t a specific bet themselves like the moneyline, point spread, or point total. A parlay is a compilation of a number of different bets, but the payout is much higher than if the bets were all made separately; also, the more bets in the parlay, the higher the payout. Let’s say that there are 5 NFL games you want to bet on, and you are very confident that you will be right for all 5. You could bet all 5 individually, and win a little money, or you could parlay them and win a bunch more. Here’s the kicker, if even one of them is wrong, you lose the entire bet. This type of betting is much more risky, but there is a much greater reward. I compare these bets to extreme moneylines, my chances of winning are small, and I’d rather keep my money than donate it to the house. There are different kinds of parlays called round-robins where you have a little more safety, but it yields a lower payout than a typical parlay. The way these work, is that if you choose 5 games to bet on, it will parlay every possible combination of them in groups of whatever you choose (typically 3 or 4). If you happen to pick one game wrong, all parlays that include that game will be losers, but the bets where it only included the winning games, you win. I am indifferent on these, you need to pick a higher number of games and be right on pretty much all of them to make money.
The last type of bet that I highlighted here is the most diverse one, prop betting. Prop bets are really any other bet that can be made on the game, that doesn’t include the moneyline, spread, or point totals. The Super Bowl is the #1 event when it comes to number of bets placed (in Vegas) and prop betting is very extensive here. You can bet things such as: how long the national anthem will be, the color of Gatorade that is dumped on the winning coach, who scores the 1st touchdown, how many passes will X player catch, how many yards will player Z run for, etc. These bets are more fun than anything, but when you feel like you truly know the game you are betting on, the latter examples I made are simple ways to make some money.
Advanced Material
My Gambling Philosophy
Let’s move onto my personal rules that I follow when it comes to gambling. When making bets, I always consider a few things before I make them. This helps me keep my bank roll from hitting 0.
- Never spend money you can’t afford to lose.
- This should seem obvious, but many times before have people gambled away a paycheck that should have been used for feeding, clothing, or sheltering their kids. Don’t be a dead-beat, if you can’t afford to gamble, don’t. It’s as simple as that.
- Never “chase” money.
- This is something that is difficult to avoid at times, but will definitely save you money in the long run. There will be times that you are “on a heater”, and there will be times that you seem ice cold. When the latter happens, don’t try and recover lost money by making stupid bets, because generally, they end up being stupid bets. Step back, take a breather, and accept your losses when they happen. Chasing money tends to just get you deeper in the hole, and more frustrated.
- Don’t bet with your heart, bet with your brain.
- I understand that sometimes people are just betting for fun, and that is OK, but if you’re trying to make money, use your brain. If you have a favorite team, a favorite player, an arch rival, or just don’t like a certain player, don’t let that influence your betting. If you feel that you are unable to separate yourself from emotion, then don’t bet on any games involving those players or teams.
- Don’t waste winnings on stupid bets.
- This is the opposite of “never chase money”. If you find yourself winning a few bets in a row, don’t just bet because “you’re playing with house money”. The house isn’t willfully giving you back your money, so why should you? Take your winnings when you get them, and don’t be afraid to pocket the cash.
- Avoid bets at the far ends of the spectrum.
- I mentioned this a bit above, but it’s worth reiterating; don’t just throw down a dollar or 2 on a ridiculous moneyline because there’s a chance it ends up paying out big. It’s not going to hit, you just threw cash at the house and they are gladly taking it from you. Alternatively, don’t throw a ton of cash down to win a few dollars, this can only bite you square in the ass, and you are going to feel like one if you happen to lose (which does happen).
- If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
- This is simple life advice that I just happen to use when gambling. If you see a wager that looks like easy money, it’s not. The house uses complex algorithms to establish wagers with data you’ve never even seen, and those wagers are approved by people whose livelihoods are literally dependent on how well the house does. If I am looking at a line and thinking “wow, there’s no way that that doesn’t hit”, I am very often times very wrong, because the people approving these numbers have seen, and done, much more research than me.
Trends I Tend to Follow
If you’ve stuck with me this far, good, I hope you’ve learned a few things. Now let me share with you a few tidbits that I use when gambling, specifically tailored to gambling on the NFL. Please note that I am no expert, I don’t get paid to share this information, and gambling has not made me a wealthy man; I simply enjoy sports gambling and I hope that by reading this, other people find it more enjoyable, and possibly, more lucrative.
- Professional teams are still professional teams
- When it comes to professional sports, I feel that a lot of people fail to remember just that, these are PROFESSIONAL teams. In college, the favored teams tend to win more because the difference in talent level can be extreme at that level. In professional sports, however, it is not. These players are among the top 1,000 or so individuals in the world at what they do. There’s a reason they have gotten this far, and even though certain teams may just be bad, they still have a chance to win on any given Sunday. People learn this lesson the hard way all the time. Just because a team is favored by 17 points does NOT mean that they are a sure-fire win.
- Regression to the mean
- What this basically means is that when a team is projected to perform at a certain level over the course of a season, and they are not currently producing at that level, there is a good chance that they will work hard to get back there. Before every NFL season, I sit down and think about how I expect each team to fare this upcoming season. Some seasons I will actually go through and predict each team’s record, but other times, I’ll just have a mental image of how I expect the season to go. If after a short amount of time they are not performing how I expected them to (or even above expectations), and there is no glaring reason for this, I will start heavily betting for, or against, that team while they return to the level of play that I expected. It is important to note that there are many viable reasons as to why a team doesn’t meet expectations, if the reason is understandable, you may need to adjust how you feel about that team accordingly.
- When in doubt, go with the home team
- Ok, this really isn’t a trade secret or anything, but it is often times overlooked. If there is a matchup that I see as really 50/50, the advantage really is with the home team. The crowd really does have an impact on the coaches and players, and really gives a big advantage to the defense (this applies to all sports) because communication isn’t as necessary on that side of the ball. Offenses have to focus and communicate very well in order to run a play successfully, defenses really just have to react to what they see and can be aided tremendously by mental mistakes made by the offenses.
- Understand when offenses have the advantage over a defense
- There are a number of instances I can come up with when the offenses might have the upper hand over a defense, but the main circumstances that come to mind include: non-conference games, short turnarounds (when there is little preparation time), and early in the season (a combination of 2 or all 3 of those is a huge bonus). The main reason is this; defenses are reactive in the NFL. Yes, they can blitz or do whatever they want, but they have to react to what the offense is doing in order to make plays. In the situations I mentioned above, the defense and coaching staff won’t have as much time or material to study in order to create a sound game plan in order to counter the offense.
- Don’t be afraid to buy points
- A 3 point difference is obviously the most common outcome when it comes to football games. Try and buy points when you see a spread of 3.5, to get that number down to 3; it does make a world of difference. This isn’t as big of a deal for spreads outside of 3, but the payout doesn’t change much, so feel free to do it even if you see it at 6.5 or 7.5. Outside of 3, 6, and 7, I wouldn’t really bother.
- Don’t let a few points scare you
- Honestly, what is the difference between a spread of 4 and 6? 2 points, sure, but what that spread tells me is that the favored team is supposed to win by more than a field goal. Personally, missed PATs, safetys, and other ways of scoring, that aren’t field goals or TDs, are completely unable to be accounted for, so don’t try. I treat spreads of 4, 5, and 6 the exact same way because I need a win by a TD to cover that. The same goes for 8, 9, and 10 (the same could be said for 11, 12, and 13) since I need more than a TD to cover.
- In today’s NFL, bet on the better QB
- This is another one that seems pretty self-explanatory, but in the NFL we have today, offenses are king, and the captain of that offense is the QB. If I’m looking at a game that is essentially a coin flip, I am going to take the better QB 90% of the time (an added bonus if they are home). Most games aren’t decided in the 3rd quarter, so as time is ticking down and my team needs a play to win the game, I am going to trust the better QB to get the job done.
