Week 1 Like/Dislike
Before we get into the players I like and don’t like for week 1, there are a few important things to know. First of all, never sit your studs. Let me say that again: NEVER sit your STUDS. Because of this I will have a list of the major studs at each offensive position that should never be on your bench unless they are on bye or if they are injured. Don’t outsmart yourself with their matchups. This list is intended to help you decide between 1 or more players you may not be completely sold on, on a weekly basis. Just because I don’t particularly like a certain player does not mean they should be on your bench no matter what. Some people won’t have better options than the players I don’t like and, I am human, I will make mistakes. It is also important to note that the players listed here should be considered for use in DFS leagues as they will likely be available at a cheaper price. Since DFS is illegal where I live I will not be making a DFS value post each week.
Quarterbacks
Studs – Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady
Like:
- Matthew Stafford – the Colts defense is pretty pathetic to begin with but they will be missing a few key defenders as well; pair that with a questionable running game and another off season studying Jim Bob Cooter’s offense and Stafford has all the makings to go nuts this week.
- Derek Carr – New Orleans had the worst ranked defense in 2015, possibly one of the worst in history. Now that Rob Ryan is out of the picture they should be looking to improve but that will be more than just an overnight project, Carr will still be looking down a bottom 5 defense week 1.
- Kirk Cousins – Cousins goes up against a Steelers defense that struggled against the pass last year and boasts one of the league’s best passing attacks as well. There is a good chance this game turns into a shootout.
- Jameis Winston – Atlanta gave up a lot of points through the air last year and Winston looks primed to continue growing on his great rookie season last year. Typically divisional matchups are lower scoring but being the first week in the season I think we will see more points than a week 17 game.
Dislike:
- Joe Flacco – Primed for a rebound season after the entire Raven’s roster was seemingly hurt in 2015, Flacco does not look like he will start out 2016 strong. Last year’s Buffalo defense was an enigma; they played like a top 5 defense at times and a bottom defense at others. If the good buffalo defense shows up, then Flacco will struggle with his moderate, at best, WR core.
- Ryan Tannehill – Tannehill was someone I picked as a breakout candidate in 2015 but he fell very short of that. 2016 is another chance for Tannehill to break out but it won’t happen week 1 against the Seattle defense. Tannehill needs time to develop chemistry with his receivers to flourish in Adam Gase’s offense but it won’t happen against the legion of boom.
- Phillip Rivers – See above for Winston, Jameis. Divisional matchups tend to be more defensive focused and I don’t expect this to be any different. Rivers will be looking to tear apart the league with his arm after a 2nd consecutive season of falling off the table in the 2nd half. It just won’t begin this week against a stingy KC secondary.
- Andy Dalton – Dalton had a great year last year before being sidelined with a thumb injury that caused him to miss a few regular season games as well as a matchup against Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Even though I think he might show some of that same ability this year that he displayed last year, Dalton has a slightly depleted receiving core with Eifert out and the loss of 2 starting WR. He is also going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the New York Jets, look elsewhere this week.
Running Backs
Studs – Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, Devonta Freeman, Lamar Miller, Eddie Lacy, Mark Ingram, LeSean McCoy, Le’Veon Bell
Like:
- DeAngelo Williams – The Washington defense has improved from last year but they still are a weaker point for the team. With Bell on suspension, Williams will be getting all the touches in this backfield. If Pittsburgh can take an early lead Williams can easily get 20+ touches and will dominate the goal line carries.
- DeMarco Murray – The Vikings have a pretty good defense, but they lack the ability to stop a runner off the edge. Murray dominated touches in the preseason and it will likely take a few games before Derrick Henry will start leeching touches from him. Look for Murray to get the ball early and often in this run dominant standoff.
- Spencer Ware – Ware should be a strong option this week against a weak San Diego run defense, especially in the absence of Jamaal Charles. Ware rushed really well against SD last year and should look to continue his success against them this year.
- Ryan Mathews – Mathews will be looking to get 20+ touches against the Brown’s defense. What else is there to say?
- Latavius Murray – There seems to be mixed signals coming out of Oakland prior to the first game. They didn’t use Murry much because they “know what they have in him” yet they don’t seem to think he will be totally capable to handle all the carries all season long. Regardless, he is their lead back and he will be going against the poor New Orleans defense. If he fails to run well this week, look to pick up DeAndre Washington next week as he will become more prominent in this offense.
Dislike:
- Jeremy Hill – The New York Jets were one of the stringiest run defenses in 2015 and will look to remain that way in 2016. If the Bengals are hunting from behind we will see a lot more Giovani Bernard than Jeremy Hill. Hill’s biggest value in 2015 was him crossing the line into the promise land, I don’t see that happening this week so don’t look to Hill for much this week.
- Jonathan Stewart – Denver’s D was the best in the league last year in many categories, we also saw this matchup in the Super Bowl so we have something to reference here. Cam tends to keep the ball himself on goal-line situations and the Panthers also have Mike Tolbert who can vulture touches there. I highly doubt J Stew will get a lot of yardage so unless he can score, his value is severely limited.
- Arian Foster – See Tannehill, Ryan above. Foster will be up against the Seattle defense this week. If they get down early they will be forced to throw. Foster has looked sluggish throughout the preseason which is understandable due to his injury last year. If he isn’t running at 100% then Seattle’s speedy defense will feast on Foster.
- Melvin Gordon – Besides the fact that Gordon struggled mightily last year in general, KC is good at stopping the run as well. I think Woodhead will get more use than Gordon in this game once SD falls behind and starts throwing the ball.
- Chris Ivory – Green Bay’s defense looks like it is pretty well built this year but that isn’t the biggest concern here. Last year Jacksonville was very quick to abandon the run while behind and they will likely do the same this year. Part of that was probably due to Yeldon’s ineffectiveness on 3rd and short and on the goal line as well. Regardless, Ivory will likely be dumped from the game plan early once Green Bay takes a commanding lead.
Wide Receivers
Studs – Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr, Julio Jones, AJ Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks, Brandon Marshall, Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery, Amari Cooper, TY Hilton, Keenan Allen, Jordy Nelson, Sammy Watkins
Like:
- Eric Decker – Cincinnati is a tough defense to run against so if the Jets are going to keep close, they are going to have to throw. Since the Bengals lost Safety Reggie Nelson, they will be weaker against a strong slot receiver. Decker may be one of the best slot receivers in the league so if the Jets are going to win, it will have to go through his hands.
- Donte Moncreif – Detroit’s best defensive back is Darius Slay, the reason why Moncreif is on this list is because Slay is most likely to cover TY Hilton all game instead of Moncreif. With all the preseason hype surrounding Moncreif and with the return of Andrew Luck, Moncreif is primed to start his 2016 breakout performance this week.
- Golden Tate/Marvin Jones – The Colts will be missing star Safety Vontae Davis, so the Lions should be looking to feast on the broken secondary of the Indianapolis Colts. As of right now, it seems that Tate and Jones are 1a and 1b on the depth chart. It is unknown as of now if one of these guys will get the majority of targets or if it will be even throughout the season.
- Doug Baldwin – The Dolphin’s front 7 will be eating the poor OL for the Seahawks alive, but Wilson will be his usual self: scrambling for his life and making big play after big play. Baldwin was his guy last year on broken plays so expect much the same for the start of the season while they ease Thomas Rawls back into action following his ankle surgery.
- Jarvis Landry – Landry sees the biggest bump out of all Dolphin’s players because he won’t be seeing much of Richard Sherman presumably. If they can’t run the ball and they don’t throw Sherman’s way, Juice may be seeing 15 or more targets week 1. If you have him in PPR expect most of his points to come via catches rather than yards or TDs.
Dislike:
- Julian Edelman – The Cardinals have one of the best secondary’s in all of football. With that in mind (and the fact that the Patriots will be without Tom Brady for the first few weeks) I wouldn’t expect much from the passing game of the New England Patriots in the month of September.
- Jeremy Maclin – This matchup looks best for the Chief’s running game as SD had trouble stopping opposing runners in 2015. Maclin was held to a total of 9 catches for 97 yards in 2 games against San Diego last year. After Kansas City goes up early, they will rely on the running game more that Alex Smith’s arm to carry them to victory.
- Allen Hurns – Part of this is because Green Bay’s defense looks fairly formidable this year, the other part is that I simply don’t trust Hurns in 2016. We’ve seen it plenty of times where a journeyman player bounces around from team to team only to have 1 solid season to show for it. That season was in 2015 for Hurns, temper expectations for him going forward, especially if Julius Thomas is finally healthy.
- Kelvin Benjamin – Just like what was said for Stewart above, the Broncos have one of the best overall defenses in the NFL, if not the absolute best. With Benjamin seeing the best coverage he will possibly find all year, plus him likely having a snap count to limit his time on the field, the Panthers will likely not lean on Benjamin to win their first game for them in 2016.
- Cardinal’s WRs – I put all Cardinal WRs on this list for 1 reason: NE typically looks to stop the biggest strength of the opposing team and force them to win through other means. I couldn’t decide which WR to put on here so I put them all. You could definitely gamble and play one of your Arizona WRs in Fitzgerald, Brown, or Floyd in your lineup but just know that at least one of them is going to finish with a poor stat line. My guess is that Fitzgerald will have the best day of the 3 since he will likely play mostly out of the slot and that is where New England struggled against opposing WRs most last year.
Tight Ends
Studs – Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce, Coby Fleener, Delanie Walker
Like:
- Julius Thomas – Above I talked about how I don’t really like Allen Hurns this year, I think his success will be transferred to Julius Thomas and he will see a big breakout season instead. Green Bay has decent Safetys so the matchup isn’t tremendous but the Jaguars are going to throw in this game, a lot.
- Clive Walford – Walford is on my list of potential breakout candidates at TE this year. It’s tough for TE to make impacts early in their career but I think he has the potential in an offense that needs more quality targets. Walford also has the opportunity to take advantage of the bottom ranked defense in 2015.
- Eric Ebron – Ebron has been on my list of breakouts for the past few years, hopefully this is the year he gets it done. Going against Indy won’t hurt his chances either as I have said multiple times in this document: Indy’s D has been beaten up so this is a good matchup for any receiving players on Detroit.
Dislike:
- Gary Barnidge – Barnidge enjoyed a breakout season last year with the Browns but I think that train has come to a halt. Barnidge has to create new chemistry with RG3 this year to remain a top option. He is also going against the Philadelphia secondary that has a great tandem at Safety.
- Antonio Gates – Look above regarding San Diego players this week. They are going up against a stingy KC defense who I think will stymie the Chargers. There are better options out there this week.
- Dwayne Allen – Detroit’s Safety’s are actually pretty decent. Indy has a lot of weapons to rely on and using one that has a less-than-stellar matchup seems kind of idiotic to me. Luck will have success against this defense, but it likely won’t be through the TE position.
