Week 6 Start/Sit
As I have mentioned before, football can be maddening. It is unbelievably hard to predict what is going to happen on the gridiron when 11 players face off against 11 others every play. You could sit down and try to evaluate every single matchup, but there are multiple injuries every game and even if you are ultimately right in your prediction, it only takes 1 little mistake on 1 play to make you look like you totally got the call wrong. Case and point, Martellus Bennett was on my “sit” list last week. For those of you who watched the game you saw him catch 6 passes for 67 yards. Not bad at all. What I couldn’t predict was the 3 TD passes he caught as well. A 6/67/0 stat line is a far cry from a great day, but even a 3/6/3 is an amazing day because of the 3 TDs. My point is that you should never be angry because you benched a player who caught a TD or even multiple TDs. TDs are nearly impossible to predict. What should get you angry is sitting a player who catches 10 receptions for over a hundred yards, that is much more predictable. The thought I want to leave all you readers with this week is 3 things I look at week-to-week and year-to-year that I think are the most reliable things to base projections off of, they are as follows: targets/carries, redzone targets/carries and redzone efficiency, and projected matchups. Let me break that down for you really quick. Targets are the amount of passes thrown a player’s way regardless of whether or not they were caught; obviously carries are the amount of times a RB carries the ball. If a QB loves his main guy and he’s getting 18 targets a game, then there is a real chance he is going to go absolutely crazy week-to-week. Redzone targets/carries and efficiency are important because they are the only things that can give you an idea on how much a player is going to score. If your player is targeted/carries 80% of the redzone plays you can bet your ass that he is primed to cross that big white line. If your player is almost never used in the redzone he is going to have to outrace defenders to find the promise land. And finally, projected matchups: these aren’t numbers you are going to see in box scores or anything like that. What I look at is the overall strengths of both teams (good at stopping the run vs the pass) and how individual matchups should shake out. Last week I had Jordan Matthews as a start, many would have thought that was idiotic because the Lions have Darius Slay who is one of the great, young CBs in the league and he’d be over Matthews all game. What I saw was that instead, Slay typically doesn’t line up in the slot to cover receivers, he prefers to line up outside. Not that J Matt had a great day because he didn’t, but I was right about the opportunities he would face. There are many things that happen in football that nobody can predict, the most reliable prediction is the one of opportunity. I want players that are going to get the ball; it’s up to them what they do with it.
As always, the most important takeaway from this article should be to never sit your studs. Let me say that again, NEVER sit your STUDS. Your studs are the guys that can prevail no matter the matchup because they are one of the best in the world at doing what they do. Every week I will have a list of the major studs at each offensive position that should never be on your bench unless they are on bye or if they are injured, don’t outsmart yourself with their matchups. This list is intended to help you decide between 1 or more players you may not be completely sold on, on a weekly basis. Just because I don’t particularly like a certain player does not mean they should be on your bench no matter what. Some people won’t have better options than the players I don’t like. I will try my best every week to avoid using obvious players against obvious matchups and select players that have either been struggling recently or I think have a secretly good matchup. It is also important to note that the players listed here under Start should be considered for use in DFS leagues as they will likely be available at a cheaper price or I think they are ready for an amazing week.
Quarterbacks
Studs:
Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady
Start:
Carson Palmer – After missing last week with a concussion, Palmer is welcomed back against the soft NYJ secondary. This team throws deep at a rate that is tops in the league and every week I see a long TD against the Jets. The Steelers scored a 74 yard TD on their first drive against the Jets last week and the Cardinals HC Bruce Arians used to be the OC for the Steelers. Great DFS play this week.
Matthew Stafford – A little down the last couple of weeks but Stafford is still in the midst of what could be his best season as a pro and the Rams defense just looks like an entirely different unit this year. Pair that with injuries to their unit, especially their top CB Johnson and this should be favorable.
Derek Carr – Derek Carr is KILLING IT in the RZ so far this year. JDR is showing his guts by going for 2 and going for it on 4th down a lot this year and for those of you listening at home, that is a GOOD thing for your QB. Top 5 option in fantasy right now and he lit up KC last year, I’m starting him if I own him.
Blake Bortles – Seems to be in a little bit of a slump so far this year but the Chicago secondary should welcome him in with open arms. The weather has been warm this season in Chicago and the Bears are doing their part in passing the ball which should mean this game will be pretty high scoring.
Sit:
Matt Ryan – I was spot on last week with his prediction and his matchup doesn’t get much easier this week against Seattle.
Kirk Cousins – Even though Captain Kirk had his with with Philly last year, the Eagle’s D is playing like a whole different unit this year. This game could be pretty low scoring and I don’t really want a big part in it in DFS or traditional fantasy if I don’t have to.
Joe Flacco – A few things here. The Giants have been pretty good on defense so this isn’t a great matchup to begin with. SSS is also hurt so Flacco will be missing his favorite weapon through the air. They did just let go of Marc Trestman who has no reason to be in the NFL at this point. However, that’s the biggest thing; with him gone they will be taking more shots downfield which is in Flacco’s wheelhouse but I don’t want to rely on him the week after Trestman is let go. Maybe next week if I see some good things in week 6.
Phillip Rivers – It’s hard to sit this guy, but it’s even harder to play a QB against Denver. I don’t need to go on and talk about how he’s missing his 2 favorite targets in Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead, I just would prefer to look elsewhere this week if at all possible.
Running Backs
Studs:
David Johnson, Lamar Miller, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, DeMarco Murray
Start:
Todd Gurley – He’s not listed as a Stud (even though he is a top 5 talent at the position) because he’s been riding the struggle bus all year now, but if you own him you’ve been playing him all year. It may seem like an obvious start against Detroit, but I put him on here because THIS is the week he will finally break out. Let’s see one of those ridiculous stat lines from early 2015 shall we?
Bilal Powell – Ever since Matt Forte went off the first 3 weeks of the season I said that Powell would finish as the better fantasy back by the end of week 17. The Jets were feeding Forte 30 carries a week and at 30 years old, he was either going to break down or wear out. It seems the Jets coaching staff realized that. Now Powell is getting his and he should enjoy the game flow against Arizona which will have him catching passes all over the field.
Jordan Howard – Look at his touches the past 2 weeks. He’s playing Jacksonville. Langford is still hampered by injury. Start him.
Terrance West – When your lead RB carries the rock 11 times for 95 yards against a team that can’t stop the run, yeah, I’d fire my OC too. West should see a lot of carries this week and has been productive the last couple of weeks so I’d probably start him if I got him. Temper expectations a little bit though, the Giants had a very good run D over the first month of the season.
Giovani Bernard – Hill is hurt and Gio had a day last week. This week he’s up against NE who doesn’t allow teams to run all that much against them and Brady is going to pass 47 times. When you’re down you throw the ball and Bernard is the pass catching back. Pretty sure this is a no-brainer.
Sit:
Matt Forte – See what I wrote above for Powell.
Isaiah Crowell – After a fantastic first month of football for Crowell, he crapped the bed last week with a 1.7 YPC average. Tennessee is pretty good at stopping the run so I think this will be a game DJJ finds some success in, but I wouldn’t use Crowell for anything more than a dart at flex this week.
LeGarrett Blount – Besides the fact that Cincinnati is good at stopping the run, now that Brady is back, the Patriots want to score 50 on everybody. Blount doesn’t seem to fit into that mold, but nobody knows what Belichek is thinking on a weekly basis. If you’re starting him you are praying that the Pats make it to the goaline or that Tom is tired of throwing TDs by the 2nd half. He will remain this way for the rest of the season, more than likely.
Arian Foster – Beyond the fact that this is an injury prone player that hasn’t played the last number of weeks in the season, the Steelers don’t traditionally give up ground to the run game. If he’s healthy enough to catch a few passes he may have some value in PPR but honestly it’s not worth the risk to me to start him. Trade him for a case of beer or something.
Jeremy Hill – Like I said with Gio above, it may be more about gameflow than anything this week. He’s also banged up which isn’t a great sign. What I will point out is that when he played the Broncos he was a bench candidate for most experts, but he had his best game of the year. I doubt that happens this week but who knows?
Wide Receivers
Studs:
Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, TY Hilton, Brandon Marshall
Start:
Jeremy Maclin – Oakland has been giving up a lot through the air this year and it seems that Maclin has their number specifically. Great target in DFS this week.
John Brown – What I said about Palmer above hold true even more for JB this week. The Jets cannot stop the deep pass and Palmer likes to throw it deep. This is probably a great chance to buy low on Brown as he is likely going off this week.
Quincy Enunwa – With Decker out, Marshall is going to be heavily targeted. If I’m the Cardinals DC I’m doing everything I can to limit Marshall. After the Jets go down a few TDs it’s going to be up to Fitz to keep the game close. Enunwa has sneaky value this week.
Will Fuller – Rough game last week but Indy couldn’t stop me and my college buddies from putting up 300 yards on them. I think D hop and Fuller enjoy a strong week this week, especially Fuller.
Jarvis Landry – Another guy you likely aren’t sitting if you own him, but I’d just like to point out 1 thing: the Steelers game plan is to stop the run and avoid giving up big plays. This feeds right into the dink-and-dunk style Landry thrives in. I’m looking at 10+ catches this week.
Sit:
San Diego WRs – Last week I said that 1 of the big 3 are going off and another is going to put up a goose egg. Against Denver I’m not sure that any of them are going off, but I’m not gambling on who could.
Cameron Meredith – Most of you likely don’t even know who Cam is, but he was likely a very hot commodity on the waivers this week in standard leagues. I don’t like owning players on terrible offenses period. I especially don’t like starting players I don’t know, receiving passing from backup QBs.
Jeremy Kerley – Kerley has had a sort of mini breakout over the last 2 weeks. If Gabbert was throwing him the ball he might even be on my start list this week. The thing is that Kaepernick is now getting the start this week and I don’t trust him to get Kerley the ball at all. Start at your own peril.
Chris Hogan – Yes, he had a decent game last week. No, I do not trust him to do that reliably all season. Last year we saw Peyton Manning struggle throwing the ball downfield week after week. I also noted that Brady was not throwing downfield with the same ease as he once did and noted that his YPA had declined compared to previous years. There are just too many mouths to feed in this offense and Brady can’t chuck it like he used to. I’m only starting Hogan against defense that’s poor against the deep ball.
Brandon LaFell – Do you really think the Patriots are going to let a WR that was on their roster last year beat them? Neither do I. I don’t think they will let AJ Green beat them either, but they might not have much to say about that.
Tight Ends
Studs:
Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker
Start:
Charles Clay – With Watkins out, the biggest beneficiaries have been Robert Woods and Charles Clay. If you need someone at TE this week, he’s a decent option.
Martellus Bennett – Patriots are running 2 TE sets a lot. Bennett is Brady’s new toy apparently. He may be TD dependent, but he’s worth owning in most leagues and worth starting in a lot of them as well.
Zach Ertz – Bad week last week, but the matchup is good against Washington week 6 and he’s a solid target in a team without many good ones.
Sit:
Antonio Gates/Hunter Henry – Both have been seemingly productive but it’s the same thing that’s happening in Indy; neither can succeed while the other still plays. That sounds like something out of Harry Potter.
Will Tye – Giant’s offense is a mess. Baltimore’s defense is pretty good.
Dwayne Allen/Jack Doyle – Look up 2 spots. Rinse and repeat. Houston is also pretty good.
